In case you haven’t noticed, the United States is embroiled in a political and financial conflict that is influencing the stability of world financial markets. One of the headlines of a recent (9 August 2011) New York Times article states, “Wave of worry threatens to build on itself: Hesitation over the uncertainty of the economy can make things worse.” That led me to wonder the degree to which perception can actually determine reality. The term I associate with perception as a determiner of reality is self-fulling prophecy.
Although the concept of prophesies determining future events is ancient, its modern expression was developed by sociologist Robert K. Merton, who coined the term and formalized its structure and consequences (see Social Theory and Social Structure).
The self-fulfilling prophecy is, in the beginning, a false definition of the situation evoking a new behaviour which makes the original false conception come ‘true’. This specious validity of the self-fulfilling prophecy perpetuates a reign of error. For the prophet will cite the actual course of events as proof that he was right from the very beginning.
In general, “reality” (the territory, in NLP terms) determines the perception. Developing accurate perceptions of the territory may take a few generations, as it did with the heliocentric view of the universe, but—in most cases—reality wins. Humans are simply more successful when their perceptions conform to “what is.” You may be familiar with the Darwin Awards which are awarded annually to individuals who have removed themselves from the gene pool by ignoring what most people accept as reality. A recent example was the individual who received a Darwin Award for “planking” on his balcony railing seven stories above the ground. You—and most people—can guess what might go wrong while planking on a balcony railing seven stories up.
In some cases, however, the belief—the perceptual frame—creates the reality. Common examples include the way suspicion of relationship infidelity can lead to cheating and the expectation of “catching” a cold or the flu can lead to the individual’s contracting the illness. A prophecy declared to be truth (when it is actually false) may sufficiently influence people, primarily through fear or logical confusion, so that their behaviors turn the once-false prophecy into reality. If you are really afraid of dogs and expect them to bite you, you increase your chances of being bitten by a dog. If enough people expect the value of stocks to fall, they are likely to sell, which causes the value of the stocks to fall, which confirms their perception that the value would fall. The same is true, of course, when people expect the value of stocks to rise. That expectation may lead to what is usually called a economic or stock-market bubble, in which the perceived value of the stocks is higher than the stock merits.
If you’ve studied history, you may have read about the The South Sea Bubble, which occurred in the early eighteenth century. This wasn’t the first example of an economic bubble (and certainly not the last). Bubbles are basically an example of what has been called the herd mentality. People adopt a belief based on a fear or a desire, and others are quick to “go along with the herd.” This is, perhaps, a natural tendency because of mirror neurons, which enable humans (and other mammals) to communicate emotional states at levels below conscious awareness. You know from your own experience, if you are around others who are really fearful, you will “feel their fear.” The same is true when you are around others who are feeling wonderful and hopeful.
When you feel their fear (or their hope and joy), your perceptual frame changes. If your feelings are basically fearful, you view the external environment through the perceptual frame of fear. And, when your feelings are positive and hopeful, you view the external environment through the perceptual frame of optimism. The same “data,” a stock-market rise of 5 percent, for example, would be seen as a hopeful sign by the person with an optimistic outlook, whereas those with a fearful outlook would add the word “only” to their perception: the market went up only 5 percent. The territory is the same, but the perception and decisions about what actions to take would probably be different.
Failure to recognize that the “reality” of the external environment is subject to herd mentality and self-fulfilling prophesy may be the “real” problem. When the mass of people see something through the “rose-colored glasses” of unwarranted optimism, the bubble created by their enthusiasm will eventually burst. When the mass of people view something with their “doom and gloom” glasses, they bring about the doom and gloom that they feared. When FDR said, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself,” he was essentially saying that people need to pay closer attention to the realities of the external environment than to the fears being expressed at the time. That was 1933, when the U.S. was still struggling with the economic downturn known as “The Great Depression.”
It seems to me that the key is to remain aware that the territory—external reality—isn’t actually influenced by our perceptions. The stock market may rise or fall based on our perceptions, but the underlying value of the products and services the market represents rises or falls at a different rate. Companies go broke from time to time, and some grow and prosper. The trick—and in some ways I think that it really is a trick—is to stay focused on what is real. Part of the trick is recognizing the influence of herd mentality and taking advantage of it without getting caught up in the false belief that fuels it. In the words of Kenny Rogers (as written by Don Schlitz), “You got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em,/Know when to walk away, know when to run.” The song is “The Gambler,” which is an indication of what you are doing when you are attempting to take advantage of herd mentality.
The current political and economic turmoil is just one example of how perceptual frames can create a self-fulfilling prophesy. First, politicians and “Wall Street moguls” created a perceptual frame that encouraged wild spending (by government and individuals). During this phase, some people really did make a lot of money. Eventually, reality demonstrated that we, as a country and as individuals, too many of us didn’t have the wherewithal to pay for what we had bought. Then the “doom and gloom” set in, and we’re off and racing in the opposite direction. In both cases, reality has been overlooked. Richard Bandler has said, “disappointment requires adequate planning.” If the future we envision, whether stock-market gains (or losses) or the characteristics of a future “significant other,” is too different from the reality of the possible, we are bound to be disappointed.
In most cases, we have enough evidence to create relatively accurate perceptual frames to enable good decisions. And, when we don’t, a realistic perceptual frame allows for uncertainties. We have sufficient economic history, for example, to know what tax policies create jobs and increase the wealth of most people. When we ignore that history, which is part of the territory called “reality,” we run into problems. If we’re old enough, we all have established perceptual frames, and it’s worth checking to see which of your perceptual frames are firmly founded in the territory. Like disappointment, a happy future requires adequate planning.
